Growing space safety and sustainability concerns to drive In-Orbit Services and Space Situational Awareness uptake

In the increasingly congested and contested space environment, Space Logistics and Space Situational Awareness markets are increasingly seen as a tool of flexibility and safety for satellite operators, although most of them are still waiting for a strong demand signal, finds Novaspace in its new Space Logistics Markets report 3rd Edition: SSA Focus.

Novaspace, born from the recent merger between Euroconsult and SpaceTec Partners, and leading space consulting and market intelligence firm, finds that space safety and sustainability concerns are driving cautious interest for In-Orbit Services and commercial Space Situational Awareness in its latest Space Logistics Markets report and projects around $4.6 Billion in commercial revenue over the decade.

Indeed, with another 28 000 satellites to be launched in the next decade (a +76% increase compared to last decade, from Novaspace’s report Satellite to Be Built & Launched 2023), adding to over 6 000 active satellites and 130 million space debris (only 35 000 of which large enough to be tracked), satellite operators see a growing need for SSA solutions enabling safer spaceflight. Novaspace estimates that commercial SSA services and data sales will generate some $2.5 Billion in revenue for providers over the next decade.

Meanwhile, defense agencies are considering satellite refueling to increase mobility in the congested and contested space environment, sustainability-focused governments are buying demonstration space debris removal but face its very high price tags and difficult coordination in space, and OTV operators are looking for their market amid incompressible launch costs and present-day capacity limitations. Together, these markets should total around $1.7B in revenue over the decade (less than 0.5% of satellite manufacturing and launch value expected over the same period for reference).

Gabriel Deville, Novaspace Consultant and Editor of the report commented that:

“Although there is still a long way to go before space logistics become a buyer’s market, the fast-changing and complexifying space environment is paving the way for ambitious demonstrations with the potential to redefine the economics of space in the long-term”.

Finally, the report addresses present and future structural changes in launch market, including the SpaceX monopoly on heavy launch in the West, the imminent introduction of the Starship super heavy launcher, and the race of small launchers to heavy follow-ons to return and intensify competition. It provides a detailed launch forecast over the decade, with an average 210 launch per year, and depicts the main evolutions of the launch industry to expect ahead.

Novaspace’s Space Logistics Market report 3rd edition is out now and a free extract available to download, featuring global trends and forecasts across six identified market verticals.

About the Report

Novaspace’s Space Logistics Markets report provides a comprehensive analysis of the emerging space logistics ecosystem and markets, including satellite Last Mile Delivery (LMD), in-orbit servicing and Life-Extension Solutions (LES), Active Debris Removal (ADR), In-orbit Assembly and Manufacturing (AIM), Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and Access to Space (ATS). Over 200 pages, the report maps out present solutions and suppliers and those coming to the market, needs, use cases and technology, and forecasts revenue over the next decade across three diverging scenarios assuming different hypothesis.

The 2024 Edition: SSA Focus includes deep dive into the SSA market over a 60-page dedicated Chapter leveraging over 90+ industry and government interviews with providers and users of SSA performed over the past year. It features a thorough assessment of SSA markets, use cases, user profiles, needs, and sensors (both ground and space-based), some SSA 15 detailed company profiles, 8 government SSA programs including insights on commercial acquisition frameworks, and maps of sensor distribution globally.

Additionally, for premium subscribers, the report comes with Novaspace’s Launcher Database, comprising over 400 launchers and launcher projects globally, with characteristics such as payload capacity, launch price, reusability, manufacturer, operator, country, etc.

About Novaspace

Novaspace emerges as a global consulting leader, resulting from the merger between Euroconsult and SpaceTec Partners. This strategic move combines the distinctive strengths of both entities to significantly amplify our international presence and service capabilities. With a robust 40-year legacy of expertise in guiding private companies and government entities through strategic decision-making processes, Novaspace offers end-to-end consulting services, from project strategy definition to implementation, providing data-led perspectives on critical issues. Our mission is to empower clients with strategic and technical insights, enabling them to navigate and seize new opportunities within the rapidly evolving space sector. As a privately owned and fully independent organization, Novaspace presents an expanded portfolio of services, featuring combined expertise in management and technology consulting, top-tier executive summits, and market intelligence. Trusted by 1,200 clients in over 60 countries, Novaspace is headquartered in Paris, with offices strategically located in Brussels, Hong Kong, Montreal, Munich, Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo, Toulouse, and Washington D.C.