A recent study conducted by researchers at the University of Malaga in Spain has analyzed the increasing risks of in-orbit collisions caused by space debris. The study reveals that since the launch of the first satellite in 1957, the amount of space debris has continued to grow. The European Space Agency (ESA) estimates that there are currently over 131 million useless space waste objects orbiting the Earth at an average speed of 36,000 kilometers per hour. These objects range in size from 1 millimeter to 10 centimeters and come from various sources, including rocket stages, defunct satellites, and even tools lost by astronauts.
According to Professor Jose Luis Torres, any piece of space debris larger than 1 centimeter has the potential to be lethal in the event of a collision. To address this issue, Professor Torres and Professor Aneli Bongers have developed a theoretical model that determines the optimal rate of satellite launches to maximize benefits while minimizing the risk of collision with space debris.
The model, which is based on computational simulations using data from NASA and ESA, analyzes the effects of anti-satellite tests on the amount of space debris and the probability of collision with operational satellites. Currently, there are approximately 6,000 satellites in orbit. The researchers’ model dynamically determines the amount of space debris based on the behavior of companies operating in space, taking into account the rate of launches and the number of satellites.
The researchers found that the amount of space debris negatively affects the number of launches and satellites. They also discovered that anti-satellite tests generate over 102,000 new pieces of debris larger than 1 centimeter, and it takes 1,000 years for these effects to disappear due to the high altitude at which the tests are conducted.
The study also highlights the economic aspects of space exploration. The researchers argue that space is a global common good that is at risk of being overexploited, similar to the high seas. They note that the absence of express regulation, except for a non-binding International Treaty of the United Nations, has led to a market failure in space. Without property rights, there is a tendency to misuse the resource and generate negative externalities.
Furthermore, the researchers warn that as society becomes increasingly dependent on companies operating in space, particularly tech companies, the volume of space debris will continue to rise, increasing the likelihood of collisions.
The study also quantifies the effects of a hypothetical war in space, simulating the destruction of 250 satellites. According to the model, this would result in an increase of 25,500,000 fragments of debris larger than 1 centimeter, further increasing the probability of collision and the number of destroyed satellites.
The objective of the study is to raise awareness about the impact of space debris on the global economy and the potential physical problems it may cause on Earth. The researchers argue that if the current rate of space debris generation continues, both commercial and scientific activities in space will be severely impacted.
